HDFC Bank hits 52 week low, Institutional investors increase their stake ; 2x returns; Share Price Target;Fundamental analysis; Should you invest ?

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Latest News

  • On 14th Feb 2024, HDFC bank made its 52 week low with a share price of 1363
  • Bank gave Negative 12.38% returns within 1 year. (Mint News)
  • Meanwhile Domestic Institutional Investors & Foreign Institutional Investors are increasing their stake in the bank in past 2 years.
  • Net Profit is almost triple from 2019 (22,446 Cr) to 2024(65,446 Cr)

HDFC Bank hits 52 week low

Why HDFC bank is not performing well in the past 4 years ?

  • If we look at the share price in last 4 years it was in consolidation phase, means it is moving in the sideways.
  • HDFC bank has given 0% returns in last 4 years.
  • It is not only the HDFC bank which has under performed when it comes to the returns but the overall Bank Nifty has not performed in last 1 year
  • In COVID time, RBI Repo rate was at 4.4% , since then RBI has increased its REPO rate to 6.5% in 2024 in order to cool down the inflation.
  • Due to increase in the REPO rate by 2.1% in 4 years has impacted the overall earnings of the banks.

Lets look at the Fundamental Analysis of the company

Key Ratios

Market Cap ₹ 10,97,792 Cr.
Current Price ₹ 1,445
High/Low ₹ 1,758 / 1,363
Stock PE 17.1
Sector PE 11.3
ROCE 9.50 %
ROE 22.1 %
PEG Ratio  0.73
Debt To Equity  7.39
Sales Growth (5 years) 22%
  • Market Cap :~ 11 Lakh Crore, HDFC bank is the Largest Bank in India.
  • PEG Ratio: 0.73– The PEG ratio takes into account the expected growth in earnings, providing a more holistic view than just the PE ratio. A ratio below 1 suggests that the stock may be undervalued relative to its expected growth rate, indicating a good investment opportunity.
  • Sales Growth (5 years) :22% – This robust growth rate over the past five years indicates that HDFC Bank has achieved consistent expansion in revenue, reflecting a strong business model and growth strategy.

Market Share

  • Bank Advances – 15.61%
  • Credit Card Transactions- 26.60%
  • Debit Card Transactions- 10.5%
  • Housing Loan – 23.73%
  • Internet Banking – 7.17%
  • Mobile Banking Transaction- 12.16%
  • Net Interest Income -16.08%
  • Large Corporate Banking- 75%

Shareholding Pattern

Change In Shareholding Pattern

Jun-21 Mar-24 Change 
Promoters + 25.89% 0.00% -25.89%
FIIs + 39.39% 47.83% 8.44%
DIIs + 21.46% 33.33% 11.87%
Government + 0.16% 0.18% 0.02%
Public + 13.10% 18.64% 5.54%

Promoters

  • Change: -25.89% (from 25.89% to 0.00%)
  • Analysis: Promoters have completely divested their stake in the company during this period. This significant decrease could indicate various scenarios such as a change in ownership, strategic restructuring, or exiting the business.

FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors)

  • Change: +8.44% (from 39.39% to 47.83%)
  • Analysis: FIIs have increased their stake by 8.44%, indicating growing interest and confidence from foreign investors. This could suggest positive sentiment towards the company’s performance or market potential.

DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors)

  • Change: +11.87% (from 21.46% to 33.33%)
  • Analysis: Domestic institutional investors have significantly raised their stake by 11.87%, indicating strong support and confidence from within the country’s financial institutions. This could imply positive perceptions about the company’s prospects or investment attractiveness.

Government

  • Change: +0.02% (from 0.16% to 0.18%)
  • Analysis: The government’s stake has seen a marginal increase of 0.02%. While this change is relatively small, it could indicate continued interest or involvement in the company, possibly due to strategic reasons or policy objectives.

Public

  • Change: +5.54% (from 13.10% to 18.64%)
  • Analysis: Public shareholding has increased by 5.54%, suggesting greater participation from individual and retail investors. This could reflect improved market sentiment, increased liquidity, or a perceived opportunity for growth.

Financial Trend

Sales:

  • March 2020 Sales: ₹122,189
  • March 2024 Sales: ₹283,649
  • Sales: Increased by approximately 132.05%.

Net Profit:

  • March 2020 Net Profit: ₹27,254
  • March 2024 Net Profit: ₹64,062
  • Net Profit: Increased by approximately 134.93%.

Company Valuation

  • When we look at the company’s stock price for the past 4 years, it was trading in the same range
  • In last 4 years stock price gave almost 0% returns
  • Resistance level =1716 & Support level =1290 & this resistance is going to breakout soon.

Price Chart (5 years)

Median PE

  • Current PE- 17 (Blue Line)
  • Median PE -25.4 (Red Line)
  • Company is currently trading at 10 year lowest valuation
  • Company is undervalued

Share Price Target

Year CAGR
1 Year -13.02%
5 Years 4.60%
10 Years  13.82%
20 Years  22.50%
  • For the last 4 years company has given almost 0% returns
  • Within next 2 years share price might get doubled to 3000 level (Assumption)
  • After 2 years means, from 2027 company can give CAGR of 17%  (Assumption)
  • Price Target Graph (A= Actual Share Price) (F=Foretasted Share Price)

Should You Invest ?

  • Being the Largest Bank in India, this blue-chip stock has not performed well in last 4 years so it will perform really good in the coming 22 years
  • In last 5 years, Sales & Net Profit has more than doubled but stock price gave only 4.6% CAGR
  • Overall Bank Nifty is trading at a lower valuation in last 5 years
  • Many largecap stocks have not given any good run up in the market so these large cap will perform well.
  • Company is fundamentally strong as per the balance sheet
  • If you are thinking of the long term you can definitely think of this company in your portfolio

Check out this- Kotak Mahindra Bank Fundamental Analysis

Disclaimer

  • This article is a complete guide about HDFC Bank Ltd.
  • These information and forecasts are based on our analysis, research, company fundamentals and history, experiences, and various technical analyses.
  • Also, We have talked in detail about the share’s future prospects and growth potential.
  • Hopefully, this information will help you in your further investment.
  • If you have any further queries, please comment below. We will be happy to answer all your questions.
  • If you like this information, share the article with as many people as possible

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