HDFC Bank hits 52 week low, Institutional investors increase their stake ; 2x returns; Share Price Target;Fundamental analysis; Should you invest ?
Latest News
- On 14th Feb 2024, HDFC bank made its 52 week low with a share price of 1363
- Bank gave Negative 12.38% returns within 1 year. (Mint News)
- Meanwhile Domestic Institutional Investors & Foreign Institutional Investors are increasing their stake in the bank in past 2 years.
- Net Profit is almost triple from 2019 (22,446 Cr) to 2024(65,446 Cr)
Why HDFC bank is not performing well in the past 4 years ?
- If we look at the share price in last 4 years it was in consolidation phase, means it is moving in the sideways.
- HDFC bank has given 0% returns in last 4 years.
- It is not only the HDFC bank which has under performed when it comes to the returns but the overall Bank Nifty has not performed in last 1 year
- In COVID time, RBI Repo rate was at 4.4% , since then RBI has increased its REPO rate to 6.5% in 2024 in order to cool down the inflation.
- Due to increase in the REPO rate by 2.1% in 4 years has impacted the overall earnings of the banks.
Lets look at the Fundamental Analysis of the company
Key Ratios
Market Cap | ₹ 10,97,792 Cr. |
Current Price | ₹ 1,445 |
High/Low | ₹ 1,758 / 1,363 |
Stock PE | 17.1 |
Sector PE | 11.3 |
ROCE | 9.50 % |
ROE | 22.1 % |
PEG Ratio | 0.73 |
Debt To Equity | 7.39 |
Sales Growth (5 years) | 22% |
- Market Cap :~ 11 Lakh Crore, HDFC bank is the Largest Bank in India.
- PEG Ratio: 0.73– The PEG ratio takes into account the expected growth in earnings, providing a more holistic view than just the PE ratio. A ratio below 1 suggests that the stock may be undervalued relative to its expected growth rate, indicating a good investment opportunity.
- Sales Growth (5 years) :22% – This robust growth rate over the past five years indicates that HDFC Bank has achieved consistent expansion in revenue, reflecting a strong business model and growth strategy.
Market Share
- Bank Advances – 15.61%
- Credit Card Transactions- 26.60%
- Debit Card Transactions- 10.5%
- Housing Loan – 23.73%
- Internet Banking – 7.17%
- Mobile Banking Transaction- 12.16%
- Net Interest Income -16.08%
- Large Corporate Banking- 75%
Shareholding Pattern
Change In Shareholding Pattern
Jun-21 | Mar-24 | Change | |
Promoters + | 25.89% | 0.00% | -25.89% |
FIIs + | 39.39% | 47.83% | 8.44% |
DIIs + | 21.46% | 33.33% | 11.87% |
Government + | 0.16% | 0.18% | 0.02% |
Public + | 13.10% | 18.64% | 5.54% |
Promoters
- Change: -25.89% (from 25.89% to 0.00%)
- Analysis: Promoters have completely divested their stake in the company during this period. This significant decrease could indicate various scenarios such as a change in ownership, strategic restructuring, or exiting the business.
FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors)
- Change: +8.44% (from 39.39% to 47.83%)
- Analysis: FIIs have increased their stake by 8.44%, indicating growing interest and confidence from foreign investors. This could suggest positive sentiment towards the company’s performance or market potential.
DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors)
- Change: +11.87% (from 21.46% to 33.33%)
- Analysis: Domestic institutional investors have significantly raised their stake by 11.87%, indicating strong support and confidence from within the country’s financial institutions. This could imply positive perceptions about the company’s prospects or investment attractiveness.
Government
- Change: +0.02% (from 0.16% to 0.18%)
- Analysis: The government’s stake has seen a marginal increase of 0.02%. While this change is relatively small, it could indicate continued interest or involvement in the company, possibly due to strategic reasons or policy objectives.
Public
- Change: +5.54% (from 13.10% to 18.64%)
- Analysis: Public shareholding has increased by 5.54%, suggesting greater participation from individual and retail investors. This could reflect improved market sentiment, increased liquidity, or a perceived opportunity for growth.
Financial Trend
Sales:
- March 2020 Sales: ₹122,189
- March 2024 Sales: ₹283,649
- Sales: Increased by approximately 132.05%.
Net Profit:
- March 2020 Net Profit: ₹27,254
- March 2024 Net Profit: ₹64,062
- Net Profit: Increased by approximately 134.93%.
Company Valuation
- When we look at the company’s stock price for the past 4 years, it was trading in the same range
- In last 4 years stock price gave almost 0% returns
- Resistance level =1716 & Support level =1290 & this resistance is going to breakout soon.
Price Chart (5 years)
Median PE
- Current PE- 17 (Blue Line)
- Median PE -25.4 (Red Line)
- Company is currently trading at 10 year lowest valuation
- Company is undervalued
Share Price Target
Year | CAGR |
1 Year | -13.02% |
5 Years | 4.60% |
10 Years | 13.82% |
20 Years | 22.50% |
- For the last 4 years company has given almost 0% returns
- Within next 2 years share price might get doubled to 3000 level (Assumption)
- After 2 years means, from 2027 company can give CAGR of 17% (Assumption)
- Price Target Graph (A= Actual Share Price) (F=Foretasted Share Price)
Should You Invest ?
- Being the Largest Bank in India, this blue-chip stock has not performed well in last 4 years so it will perform really good in the coming 22 years
- In last 5 years, Sales & Net Profit has more than doubled but stock price gave only 4.6% CAGR
- Overall Bank Nifty is trading at a lower valuation in last 5 years
- Many largecap stocks have not given any good run up in the market so these large cap will perform well.
- Company is fundamentally strong as per the balance sheet
- If you are thinking of the long term you can definitely think of this company in your portfolio
Check out this- Kotak Mahindra Bank Fundamental Analysis
Disclaimer
- This article is a complete guide about HDFC Bank Ltd.
- These information and forecasts are based on our analysis, research, company fundamentals and history, experiences, and various technical analyses.
- Also, We have talked in detail about the share’s future prospects and growth potential.
- Hopefully, this information will help you in your further investment.
- If you have any further queries, please comment below. We will be happy to answer all your questions.
- If you like this information, share the article with as many people as possible
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